Column: Oil prices anticipate increase in production: Kemp Crude oil storage tanks are seen from above at the Cushing oil hub, in Cushing, Oklahoma, March 24, 2016. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo LONDON, July 16 (Reuters) - Oil prices are sending mixed signals about the production-consumption balance in the second half of 2021 and early 2022, implying the market is currently tight but likely to see significantly more output in the near future. In the physical market, Brent’s five-week calendar spread is trading around $1.50 per barrel, which puts it in the 93rd percentile for all trading days since 2010, confirming the market is currently short of crude. In futures, Brent’s six-month spread is around $3.70 per barrel, also in the 93rd percentile for all trading days since 1990, signalling traders expect inventories to remain below average. But front-month futures prices have risen less than 10% over the last two months, implying traders anticipate substantially more crude could be made available to the market without much further increase. The current mix of flat prices and spreads is consistent with the view OPEC+ will increase production significantly in the remainder of 2021 and early 2022 to satisfy increasing demand while keeping stocks relatively low. Earlier this month, OPEC+ members agreed in principle to raise output by 2 million barrels per day between August and December, though a final decision was blocked by disputes over production levels after April 2022. The current constellation of prices and spreads implies most traders think agreement along these lines will be reached soon to ensure the shortage of petroleum does not worsen further ( https://tmsnrt.rs/2UgQWwV ). After adjusting for inflation, Brent prices are already above their long-run average, and cash flows are high enough to cover both investment in production and adequate returns to shareholders and governments. While most producers in OPEC+ and elsewhere would like prices to be even higher as they recover from the trauma understanding of last year’s price slump, consumer and political scrutiny will intensify if prices climb above $80. If producers are withholding significant volumes of output while prices move above $80, consumers and consuming-country governments are unlikely to be sympathetic and understanding. Political sensitivity about rising oil prices is already evident in U.S. government pressure on Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to settle their dispute over production baselines. In theory, the U.S. and European governments should welcome higher prices, since they sharpen the incentive to reduce consumption and accelerate the transition to alternative forms of energy. Higher prices would be the fastest way to encourage widespread adoption of electric vehicles, but most consumer-country governments remain anxious about the impact on headline inflation and the short-term political costs. Prices rising above $80 would be progressively unstable as producers boost output, while consumers switch to alternatives, and consumer-country governments ramp up antitrust enforcement and energy transition planning. In the short term, a range of $70 +/- $5 is the one likely to minimise friction between producers and consumers, keeping petroleum competitive as a source of energy while ensuring sufficient revenues for investment. This is slightly higher than the $65 +/- $5 that seemed likely in the first quarter because of the earlier and stronger recovery in petroleum consumption as a result of a rapid global economic expansion. But the basic outlook is unchanged: moderate prices minimise friction between producers and consumers, while a further surge in prices will increase pressure for a faster energy transition.https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-anticipate-increase-production-kemp-2021-07-16/
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The economy is powering ahead. In June it added a heady 850,000 jobs, according to figures released on July 2nd. On Wall Street cash is so abundant that over $750bn gets parked at the New York Fed’s reverse-repo facility most nights, mopping up some of the liquidity injected by On June 30th it absorbed nearly $1trn. The Fed’s purchases of mortgage-backed securities, given America’s red-hot housing market, now look bizarre. Some central banks have already begun to scale back their purchases. The Bank of Canada began curtailing the pace of its bond-buying in April. The Reserve Bank of Australia said on July 6th that it would begin tapering its purchases in September. The Bank of England is approaching its £895bn ($1.2trn) asset-purchase target and looks likely to stop once that is reached; Andrew Bailey, its governor, has mused about offloading assets before raising interest rates, contrary to the normal sequencing. In May the Reserve Bank of New Zealand said it would not make all of the $100bn ($70bn) asset purchases it had planned to. And the European Central Bank is debating how to wind down its pandemic-related scheme. By comparison the Fed has been reticent. Last month Jerome Powell, the Fed’s chair, said that the central bank is “talking about talking about” tapering its purchases of assets. Minutes of the meeting preceding his comments, released on July 7th, revealed that officials thought it “important to be well-positioned” to taper. Most economists expect an announcement by the end of the year. The Fed’s careful approach might reflect lingering memories of 2013, when it last warned of tapering to come. Bonds sold off sharply, the dollar soared and emerging markets suffered capital outflows in what is now known as the “taper tantrum”. Even Mr Powell’s announcement in June was accompanied by a mini-tantrum of sorts. Prompted by higher inflation, officials also indicated that they expected to raise interest rates twice by the end of 2023, sooner than they had previously signalled. The hawkish turn sent emerging-market currencies tumbling.https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2021/07/04/central-banks-face-up-to-the-daunting-task-of-quitting-qe